New England's next system is fast approaching. While this system isn't quite as threatening as some of our previous storms this summer, it is poised to bring steady rain and thunderstorms to New England Monday night into Tuesday.
A triple point low is a low pressure system that forms along the intersection of two frontal systems, in this case, a warm front and a cold front. The third point in the triple point is created by an occluded front (the purple front on the map above). The main low pressure system is attached to the end of this front further west (not shown on the map above as it is over the Great Lakes).
The triple point system will slide into the region from the southwest early Tuesday morning. Bands of rain and thunderstorms will likely begin to overspread New England from southwest to northeast starting around 3 to 6am. The precipitation will continue to push north and east throughout the morning hours, with the steadiest rain and thunderstorm activity remaining in southern (and maybe pushing into central) New England.
Euro model showing the shield of precipitation spreading into New England early Tuesday morning:
The heaviest of the rain and most thunderstorm activity will be seen Tuesday morning, before noon. Again, this steadier rain is looking to be confined to southern New England, mainly Boston and points south.
Euro model showing steady rain and thunderstorms across southeast Massachusetts around mid-morning, the likely peak of activity:
As the low pressure system shown on the "General Setup" map above moves eastward through New England, the main low to the west will traverse northern New England Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (this low can be seen on the maps above to the west). This will lead to continued showers in the afternoon and evening Tuesday across New England.
GFS showing continued lighter showers throughout Tuesday afternoon and into the overnight as the main low tracks through New England:
When all is set and done by Wednesday, New England is looking at a soaking, but total rainfall amounts will be modest, especially when comparing to some of our other storm systems this summer, some of which have dropped over a half foot of rain in places. Overall, it looks like most areas south of Boston will see an inch or two with amounts tapering off the further north you go.
There is also a risk of a couple thunderstorms turning strong to severe across southern Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. This is currently a low risk, but triple point low pressure systems do support the development of rotating storms and possibly tornadoes. As of now, it looks like the warm front will just skirt the south coast of New England.
Should this front stay offshore, it will limit any severe storms drastically, and contain them to extreme southern New England. If it pushes a bit further north, the severe threat will follow, but very likely remain south of Boston. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has the area in dark green on the map below at a 2% chance of tornadoes.
Again, this threat is low as not all ingredients (including the timing of storms coming in during the morning) are in place for severe weather, so this will be a very isolated threat. It's just high enough to bring up.
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