Another early week storm coming to New England will bring the region a bout of heavy rain, strong winds and possibly some coastal flooding. This storm will take shape in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and travel north, soaking the entire east coast as it does so. The storm will deepen as it moves up the coast. The storm will very likely take an inland track across the northeast, which will play a large role in precipitation and wind. This will come after another mild and dry weekend.
The center of the storm itself likely won't pass through (or west of) New England until Monday afternoon, but the storm will interact with a disturbance lifting north of New England. This will allow precipitation to break out by mid to late afternoon Sunday. There is stronger confidence today that precipitation will be all rain for all of New England thanks to the interior track. Temperatures Monday will likely shoot well into the 40s and 50s.
You can see the northern disturbance in the center of the country move northward as the main storm system lifts out of the Gulf of Mexico and up the east coast:
While rain will likely break out from south to north starting Sunday afternoon, the bulk of the storm likely won't come through New England until Monday morning through the early afternoon. This is when the heaviest rain and strongest winds will occur. Showers will likely linger for a while after the main system passes.
Expected weather Monday around midday:
With the storm stemming from the Gulf of Mexico, it will have ample moisture. A strong southerly flow ahead of the system into New England will allow an anomalous amount of moisture into the region given the time of year, similar to this past week's storm. This will allow for heavy rainfall rates once again.
New England will be looking at another widespread 1-3 inches of rain. The heaviest rainfall totals are currently favored across Connecticut, western Massachusetts and into the White Mountains and Maine's midcoast. A shift in the track over the next couple days could move this, but, again, all of New England will likely see bouts of heavy rain resulting in at least an inch regardless of where the final track ends up. Northern Vermont stands to see the least rain at this time.
This will be fine-tuned over the next 24 hours or so:
With another bout of heavy rain bringing potentially multiple inches, we'll need to watch out for street and minor river flooding, similar to this past week's storm. The Weather Prediction Center has all but northern Vermont in the "marginal" (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall with southern New Hampshire and southern Maine in the "slight" (level 2 of 4) category. New England may see another wide swath of flood watches once again.
The wind threat with this storm shares some similarities and differences with this past week's storm. Maximum wind gusts along the coast could be similar, with 50-60mph gusts. Winds will likely be strongest across Cape Cod and the islands, where the 60mph gust threat is greatest.
Winds will be southeasterly in nature rather than due south, which is more favorable for stronger winds spread over a wider area, with gusts to at least 40mph across much of New England. A big question mark for the Green and White Mountains will be how far down the slopes the winds can get.
Generally, the further inland the storm system tracks, the further inland the wind threat will be pushed. Right now, this doesn't look to be a major wind event and the strongest wind gusts are looking to be mainly confined to the coast, but we'll keep watching the track.
We talked about the 925mb (2,500 feet above sea level) wind speeds with last week's storm. Here's the current forecast for this storm, showing winds aloft along the coast once again reaching 80-90mph. Naturally, all this wind won't make it to the ground, but it will support gusts of at least 50mph along the coast:
With this storm being longer in duration, the coastal flood threat will be elevated compared to this past week's storm. Splashover and flooding will be possible during Monday's high tides, particularly in the afternoon. Surge of 2-3 feet will be possible, and if this coincides with high tide, pockets of moderate coastal flooding will be possible, particularly in Narragansett Bay. The storm's exact track and timing will ultimately determine impacts across New England's entire coast.
After the bulk of this storm moves through, New England will remain in a trough. This will support another, much weaker system moving through on Tuesday. This will likely continue light rain and snow showers across the region, along with cooler weather after the storm's cold front crosses New England.
Expected weather Tuesday afternoon:
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