After another incredible weekend, New England's next storm is already fast approaching. An area of low pressure is looking to cross through New England, strengthening as it does so. This storm will move southwest to northeast through the region Monday through Tuesday, with potentially heavy rain on the docket.
MONDAY
While some disagreement remains among models in regards to the timing of the whole system, most agree that showers will break out from southwest to northeast on Monday. Right now, it looks like these showers will be scattered around. It's likely that Not everyone will see a shower on Monday.
Some thunderstorms are also possible within the showers, although, thunderstorm development on Monday will be restricted by cloud cover. The Storm Prediction Center does have western areas in a "marginal" risk for severe weather, but this is a very low risk at this time. The severe weather is looking to stay to New England's southwest on Monday.
The main threat on Monday (and for the entire storm) will be heavy downpours creating flash flooding. The storm will ramp up across the region Monday night into Tuesday, so this risk looks to be isolated during the day on Monday at this time. The greatest chance for steadier rain will be across western areas.
Euro model showing where showers are most likely early Monday afternoon:
MONDAY NIGHT
Overnight Monday into Tuesday is when the bulk of the rain is expected to come through the region. Starting Monday night, the atmosphere will become more conducive to producing heavy rainfall. Downpours will become more widespread as they spread from west to east throughout the night. These downpours will have the capability to produce very heavy rainfall across the region.
The rainfall rate is likely to be constant throughout the night. As has been the case with our summer storms this year, sometimes it will just be drizzling while other times it will be a torrential downpour.
Just about the entire region will see rain by early Tuesday morning as the storm continues to spread from west to east. The best chance for the heaviest of rain Monday night will be across southern and western New England.
Euro model showing varying rainfall rates across the region early Tuesday morning:
TUESDAY
The center of the storm system will cross New England on Tuesday. Downpours will likely continue for much of the day. Conditions will be similar to Monday night. There could be a lull in activity around mid morning through early afternoon before more showers and thunderstorms spark back up for the afternoon as the associated cold front crosses the region
Rain continuing Monday afternoon, though it won't be as widespread:
There's a low risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon for southern New England. There are some things working for potent storms, but also some things working against them. There's plenty of moisture for storms to work with in the atmosphere with dew points in the 70s, but a thick cloud cover will limit how much destabilization that can occur. The severe threat will be something to watch, but it is highly unlikely to be a big threat at this time.
The biggest threat will continue to be flooding. This storm could drop a widespread half an inch to inch and a half of rain across the region. There will likely be locally much higher amounts where the downpours set up and persist Monday night through Tuesday. This doesn't look like a widespread flooding event, but localized flash floods will likely be an issue.
WEDNESDAY
Southern and central New England will likely begin drying out on Wednesday as the storm pushes away. Eastern Maine, along with the White Mountains and northern Vermont, is looking at some lingering showers during the day. Dew points will once again drop off Wednesday after the passage of the cold front.
BEYOND
We're watching another potential storm for late this week. Some models are currently depicting a coastal storm near New England next weekend. How strong this storm gets and the track it takes is complete question at this time. Other models are showing dry weather and no storm. We'll be watching all week long.
A coastal storm being shown near Cape Cod on Saturday. Whether this comes to fruition is still very much in question:
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