Precipitation from New England's latest storm will wind down this afternoon across New England, leading to a mainly dry and mild Thursday. The break will once again be short lived as another system moves along the stalled frontal boundary that's draped across New England tonight into Friday.
TIMING
This system will arrive later than last night's system with precipitation not breaking out until after midnight in southern areas. The precipitation will generally work from southwest to northeast through the Friday morning hours. Precipitation will be mainly rain, with some mixing possible in higher elevations of southern and central New England with sleet and freezing rain to the north at this time.
Expected weather Friday morning around sunrise:
By the early afternoon Friday, temperatures are expected to become more favorable for sleet or snow across portions of northern New Hampshire, northern and eastern Vermont and much of Maine. Areas south will continue to see either a wintry mix or plain rain.
Expected weather early Friday afternoon:
Precipitation will generally wind down as the afternoon goes on. Light showers will remain possible through the evening and into the overnight hours, mainly across northern New England. A weak, fast moving disturbance will move through on Saturday, leading to a quick chance for some scattered showers across northern New England Saturday morning into the early afternoon, though Saturday will be a mainly dry day for New England.
SNOW
This system has trended colder over the past 24 hours or so, which we did state was a possibility in our "weather this week article" on Monday. This will lead to a mostly snow event across much of Maine and into northern New Hampshire. A wintry mix will likely transition to snow by Friday afternoon for the White and Green Mountains and the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont.
Snowfall will generally be on the lighter side, with a jackpot of 3-5 inches likely, mainly across central and eastern Maine. Mixing near Maine's coast and drier air in northern Maine thanks to that area of high pressure will keep amounts in these areas down. More mixing and freezing rain will help keep snowfall amounts down across northern New Hampshire and Vermont.
FREEZING RAIN
Another prolonged period of freezing rain will be possible, mainly across the Green Mountains and into northern New Hampshire. Impacts will be similar to last night with slippery surfaces, but minimal impact to trees and utilities. This comes as last night's ice will generally melt off the trees today.
RAIN
Rainfall across southern and central New England will likely amount to a quarter to a half an inch in most places, so not quite as heavy as last night. With saturated soils and rivers starting to run a bit high, some poor drainage and minor river flooding is possible, mainly across Rhode Island. The Pawtuxet River will likely reach minor flood stage with moderate flood stage possible.
SUNDAY-MONDAY SNOWSTORM
A coastal storm will approach New England late in the weekend. There remains a range in the expected track, which will determine how much snow falls and how far north the snow shield gets in New England. There are basically two scenarios at play at this time.
The first scenario would be a colder and stronger solution for the storm. This would have the storm passing near the 40/70 benchmark. This would spread precipitation further north in New England and lead to higher snow totals. The solution would have a good chance to bring at least 6 inches of snow to portions of the region, most likely across interior southern New England and southern New Hampshire. This solution would also likely start as a mix or rain for most before changing over to snow from north to south.
The Euro model currently favors this scenario:
The other scenario would be for a track further south. This would likely result in a weak storm with the heaviest precipitation being held further south, or even offshore completely. This would result in the highest snow totals across areas south of the Mass Turnpike, with lighter snow showers further north. Total snowfall would be lighter, with far lower probabilities of anyone seeing 6 inches. The solution would also start as mixed precipitation before a changeover to snow.
The CMC currently favors this scenario:
The GFS and ICON are currently acting as a middle ground between the Euro and CMC
Which one of these scenarios comes to be reality will become more clear within the next 12-24 hours or so as the system. Both of these scenarios start with mixed precipitation before changing over to snow as there will be no cold air ahead of the storm, but an area of high pressure to New England's north will begin to feed cold air into the region as the storm works through the area.
As for timing, the trends have been more for the storm to make its closest pass Sunday evening through Monday. Despite this, precipitation may break out well ahead of the system on Sunday afternoon. Exact timing will be worked out in the coming days.