Now that a cold front has cleared New England, humidity levels have dropped off and mainly sunny skies have returned. Through this weekend, a rather slow moving ridge of high pressure will traverse New England, creating a weekend very similar to last weekend. From now through Sunday, New England's weather will be dominated by mainly sunny skies, warm temperatures and low humidity.
Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 80s for a majority of New England. A weak flow from high pressure will lead to the potential for sea breezes both Saturday and Sunday, keeping the coast in the 70s. On Sunday, the sea breeze may be a bit stronger with an onshore flow.
The onshore flow on Sunday comes as an area of low pressure moves up the east coast. This system will emerge from the southeast coast on Friday. Instead of shooting out to sea, this low will meander up the east coast, passing offshore of New England later Sunday into Monday. This low is being steered north due to the high pressure over the northeast and in the open Atlantic.
Wind direction and pressure heading into Sunday evening. You can see the sneaky low being pushed up the coast from the offshore high pressure rather than being able to drift out to sea. This low won't come close enough during the day Sunday to produce anything more than a slight increase in clouds in the afternoon:
We're giving this weak, unassuming low pressure system attention as it is starting to change up the forecast for early next week. Earlier this week, long-range guidance was keen on the potential for a heat wave to commence starting on Monday. We first brought up the potential for hotter, more humid temperatures this past Tuesday. This was supported by the Climate Prediction Center's temperature outlook, which showed a "moderate" possibility of excessive heat for all of next week.
This was based on large-scale factors such as an expansive ridge of high pressure to New England's southwest. As we're now getting closer to next week, the smaller scale factors are starting to come into play, which has trended temperatures down. These factors include the low pressure system riding up the coast, something that could not be seen earlier this week. This is trending Monday toward a cooler, slightly cloudier day with the potential for a few showers, especially for areas closer to the coast.
CMC showing potential temperature departure from average for Monday afternoon. The blues would support highs in the 70s rather than well into the 80s like what was being advertised as recently as Wednesday:
The coolest and cloudiest weather will be areas closer to the coast while areas well inland will be brighter and warmer for Monday. After Monday, a trough will approach from the Great Lakes, which will allow for the potential for some unsettled weather in the form of showers and thunderstorms. Depending on how the timing shakes out (if the greatest chance for increased clouds/storms will be during peak afternoon heating), this could help tamp down temperatures a bit for Tuesday and Wednesday as well.
While temperatures may be shifting around a bit, humidity is much more certain to increase once again heading into next week. A warming trend is still on tap for next week with plenty of 80s, but the chances for 90s and the potential for a heat wave have come down, or at the least, has been delayed more toward late next week. This forecast tweak is a good reminder not to go all-in on long-range guidance based solely on large-scale factors before the small-scale factors come into view.
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