After a weekend reprieve, unsettled weather will return to New England with three systems currently being watched. A fourth system of the week may cross New England around next weekend, but confidence in that one is particularly low. Regardless of how next weekend pans out, this will be another active stretch for New England punctuated by another potential cool-down.
SYSTEM #1
The first system will come overnight tonight into Monday morning. A small, compact disturbance will cross Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey today. This system will be weakening as it approaches New England. Some light precipitation will be possible across western parts of southern New England. This disturbance, which will already be weakening, will run into the strong high pressure offshore of New England and fizzle out as it moves eastward.
Below: GFS showing potential weather early Monday morning:
Precipitation may have trouble making it past the Worcester Hills (central MA) and Monadnock regions (southwest NH). Should anything manage to survive beyond this point, it would likely only be flurries. For western New England, precipitation type will likely be on the border between light snow and freezing rain. Snowfall will likely be less than an inch with a glaze of ice also possible. The system is basically running into a brick wall of dry air and high pressure over New England.
SYSTEM #2
A more organized frontal system will cross New England from Monday afternoon through Tuesday. A primary low pressure system over James Bay in Canada will swing its fronts into New England. This will provide a southerly flow with a warm front lifting through the region. This will lead to rain being the primary precipitation type on Tuesday. With that said, there is a window for some wintry precipitation before a transition to plain rain.
Warm air will be advecting into New England during this system, however, the departing high pressure may provide enough dry and cool air to keep the surface sub-freezing at the start of the event, assuming temperatures are able to drop below freezing. This may allow for a period of freezing rain across interior New England early Tuesday morning. Icing would be very light with no more than a glaze. Probabilities of 0.01" of ice is currently capped at 40% and probabilities of a tenth of an inch currently at 0% region-wide.
Below: Probabilities of at least 0.01" of ice by Tuesday afternoon:
This system will have a decently strong low-level jet to transport deeper moisture from the south into New England. This will allow for a period of steady rain across the region Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. A widespread quarter to half an inch of rain is likely with some areas likely picking up less. The system is fast moving, which will be the main limiting factor for rainfall. The system may be nearly wrapped up for much of New England by early afternoon.
SYSTEM #3
After a brief drying interval behind this system, another storm will likely approach for the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. The exact timing of this system will need to be hammered down in the coming days. The system will involve a surface low forming over the Tennessee Valley Wednesday before racing northeast toward New England. As per usual with this setup, the track will determine who gets rain, who gets snow and how much of each falls.
Cooler air will likely be filtering into New England after Tuesday's system drags a cold front across the region. This cold front does look to be on the weaker side, so temperatures are still looking to be marginal with the storm. The farther north the storm tracks, the farther north the rain/snow line would be pushed and vice versa.
Overall, trends have been for the storm to take a more southerly route than what was being displayed at this time yesterday. With that said, we're still in the stage where flip-flops can still happen. The storm is currently still projected to run inside the benchmark, leading to a wetter solution for southern New England with more wintry weather for interior northern New England. Even with a track near the benchmark, temperatures may be too warm for wintry weather along the coastal plain.
Below: Weather Prediction Center probability of seeing impactful winter weather Wednesday to Thursday. This will become more refined as the event draws closer, for now it's a very general representation of where winter weather could be located during this time:
Another note is that this storm will likely be moving along quickly. Currently, the storm appears poised to move from the Tennessee Valley Wednesday morning to eastern Maine by Thursday morning. This would translate to impacting New England from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. This quick speed may be the biggest limiting factor for both rainfall and snowfall amounts (which are very uncertain at this point).
SYSTEM #4?
After another brief break, guidance is pointing toward another system taking a swipe at New England. This one looks to be a northern stream system, possibly an Alberta Clipper type storm. Exactly how this pans out remains to be seen, but these systems usually bring a quick hit of light snowfall to New England. Guidance also shows a coastal storm well offshore of New England this weekend.
Should the clipper system and coastal system stay separated, it would likely be a standard clipper system bringing some lighter precipitation to New England Friday into Saturday morning. Should interaction or phasing occur between the systems at some point, it could lead to a more complex system with heavier precipitation rates and a rain/snow line somewhere in New England. Most guidance keeps these systems separated for now, but there is plenty of time for change at this point.
Below: current likelihood at at least minor impacts from winter weather this weekend:
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