Active Weather with Snow & Rain Continues Through Early Week for New England

As a cold front sweeps through New England this morning into the afternoon, it will lead to gradually drier air with showers becoming more and more isolated as the day goes on. A majority of the region will likely see a mainly dry afternoon and some peaks of sun will be possible. Temperatures won't crash behind the front, but the earlier arrival of this front will prevent 60+° highs as was advertised earlier in the week (never trust a warm forecast in the spring several days out).

Below: HRRR showing potential weather early this afternoon:

This frontal boundary will likely end up stalling to the south of New England later Sunday through Monday. Sunday night into Monday morning, a wave of low pressure will ride along this stalled front and bring another round of precipitation to the region. This would likely enter New England overnight Sunday to Monday morning, bringing another round of rain and snow showers.

There remains some uncertainty on exactly how far north the precipitation will be able to push into New England, but it looks like southern New England along with southern Vermont and New Hampshire will be able to get into it. With this system arriving in the early morning hours, it will light snow showers or a mix of rain and snow Monday morning. Accumulations look to be very light to none. Rain and snow showers will likely become more and more scattered in nature as the day goes on.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather from the pre-dawn hours Monday through Monday afternoon:

Later Monday into Tuesday morning, a northern stream system will likely cross near the Canadian border. This will drag a rather strong cold front across the region. This will bring colder temperatures and another round of precipitation. This northern stream system and the southern stream system will come close to phasing over New England, but limited interaction is expected.

with a northern stream track to the north of New England and limited to no phasing with the southern stream system, a widespread shield of snow is unlikely at this time. Snow (and rain/snow showers across southern areas) will likely come along the system's strong cold front Tuesday morning. Heightened instability combined with the forcing from the front and energy from the shortwave may lead to widespread snow showers with embedded snow squalls. Activity will likely be more widespread the farther north in New England you go.

Below: NAM showing potential weather around sunrise Tuesday:

As the northern stream system continues to lift north of New England, a secondary low may develop along the front and intensify over Maine during the day Tuesday. This appears to be a small and compact, but rather strong system. This would allow for more widespread snow across interior Maine on Tuesday. A band of moderate snow will be possible, which is currently favored to set up over northern Maine. With that said, some solutions do have this setting up farther south, centered closer to Downeast Maine.

Below: NAM showing potential weather early Tuesday afternoon:

The Monday night to Tuesday morning event will have a better chance to bring some snow accumulations than Sunday night to Monday morning. At this point, there are moderate to high probabilities of 1-3 inches across interior northern New England by Wednesday morning. The best chance for higher accumulations will be across the northern mountains and northern Maine. The chance for at least 6 inches of snow currently tops out at 40-50% for northernmost Maine.

Below: Current likelihood of at least 2 inches of snow through Tuesday (1st image) and likelihood of at least 4 inches (2nd image):

High pressure builds in after this system for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will likely begin to moderate through this time as the air mass behind the strong cold front gradually loses its grip on the region. The next system looks to enter the picture by late Thursday and potentially continue into the weekend as a coastal low develops to the south of New England.

Below: Current weather map for Saturday (April 12):