Active Pattern Continues for New England

A frontal system back over the Great Lakes will continue to lift northeast, eventually moving to the north of New England. Precipitation ahead of this system's fronts will continue to push through the region during the morning hours. By the afternoon, precipitation will become much more spotty in nature across New England. Eastern Maine will naturally see widespread precipitation last the longest as it may run into the early afternoon.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather early this afternoon:

The warm front will rise into southern New England Thursday afternoon, putting the area in the warm sector. This goes for Vermont and southern New Hampshire as well. The air mass behind this front will warm to the 55-60° at the low-levels (around 2,500 feet above sea level). This kind of air mass in April could support temperatures well into the 70s for southern and central New England, but springtime air masses usually have limiting factors that keep things cooler than what could occur under perfect circumstances.

Today, these limiting factors will be the potential stubborn cloud cover this afternoon. It likely won't remain completely overcast, but it may be a struggle to shake the mostly cloudy conditions. The other issue today will be shallow mixing. Still, highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s remain likely for southern and central New England this afternoon. With cold air damming in place across northern New England, it will take time for the milder conditions to reach southern New Hampshire and Vermont.

Below: HRRR showing potential temperatures around mid-afternoon today:

Cold air damming is often very stubborn and much slower to erode away than what models often have you believe. With that said, northern New Hampshire and much of Maine will likely top out much cooler than the rest of New England as the cooler air hangs tough at the surface and the warm front slows down and weakens. Highs in the upper 30s (northeast Maine) to upper 40s (northern New Hampshire) are likely.

Winds will pick up within the warm sector of the system as strong warm air advection gets going. A strong inversion (when colder air is trapped below a layer of warmer air) will limit how strong gusts can get today (the inversion can act as sort of a filter for wind). Gusts of 30-40mph will be possible for much of southern and central New England. The wind off Lake Champlain will be the strongest for New England, where a wind advisory is in effect through 8pm.

Below: Euro showing potential wind gusts this afternoon:

The system's cold front will sweep across New England from north to south this evening through Friday morning, ushering in much drier air. There won't be much of an air mass change behind this front in regards to temperatures, so conditions will stay milder. With the potential for more sunshine, some areas may be able to tick a bit warmer than Thursday.

New England's next bout of unsettled weather will come this weekend and into early next week. A nearly stationary frontal boundary will be draped across the eastern US from Texas through the Great Lakes for the rest of this week. By Saturday, the boundary will slowly shift eastward as an area of low pressure rises to New England's north. This will likely bring about a widespread, steady rainfall from west to east Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

A dry air mass ahead of the system and efficient evaporative cooling (as water evaporates, it cools the air) will allow precipitation to start as a snow or a mix across the northern tier and higher elevations. Saturday will be cool and raw across the region. The main bout of precipitation looks to move through Saturday afternoon through the night from west to east. A secondary wave of energy looks to ride along the boundary and induce another round of widespread rain from west to east through Sunday morning.

Below: RGEM showing potential weather from mid-afternoon Saturday through noon Sunday:

Overall, this system's likelihood of impactful winter weather has been trending down. At this point, only an inch or two of snow is expected across the northern tier of New England. Some icing will once again be likely as a warm nose pushes northward with cold air locked at the surface (the theme of this spring so far). Potential icing across the north will be the main thing to watch within trends. A widespread 0.25-0.75+ inches of rain is likely across southern and central areas.

Below: Current probability of at least a glaze of ice Saturday through Sunday morning:

This system will be yet another case of cold air damming slowly eroding away from south to north amid an advancing warm front. Temperatures will be cool and raw on Saturday with bouts of rain. As the warm front advances north, temperatures will warm Saturday night through Sunday. The northward extent of the warm sector is a point of contention, but, as of now, it looks to push into southern New England bringing much milder conditions compared to Saturday's very raw feel.

This is part of the moisture bringing widespread storms and the potential for significant to catastrophic flooding in a band stretching from Arkansas to about southern Ohio. 8-12 inches of rain is possible in this band over the next few days along with the potential for a multi-day severe weather event. These severe storms will very likely train over the same areas thanks to the stalled boundary. The NWS of Memphis has called this a generational flooding event.

Below: Current precipitation forecast through Sunday morning:

Looking at the big picture, a trough will be digging into the central United States with waves of energy. An elongated frontal boundary is stretched across the Ohio, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into the northeast. A large ridge over the southeast will prevent the timely eastward progress of this boundary through the weekend. All of this will lead to continued changeable temperatures and sharp temperature gradients across New England in the first week of April.

This will also keep an active pattern around with plenty of chances for precipitation over the next week. With large temperature gradients, a variety of precipitation types continues to be likely across New England. After this weekend, the next system will likely approach in the Monday night to Tuesday time frame, bringing the potential for wintry precipitation across the north.