The first week of meteorological spring will see a pattern very typical of spring. That is to say it will be mainly cloudy with a chance of showers (but minimal washout potential) and a persistent northeast flow off the ocean keeping eastern New England generally cooler than western New England. Highs will generally be above average for early March, in the 40s and 50s, with 60s possible on Tuesday for some western areas.
A weak coastal system will pass New England just offshore of New England on Saturday. This system will battle dry air initially, but showers should begin to break out across New England by Saturday afternoon. The most rain (which isn't too much) will likely fall overnight Saturday night to Sunday morning. The system will slow to a crawl, or stall completely, near the Gulf of Maine.
The higher elevations of New England may see a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet at the onset of precipitation, but this should eventually flip over to plain rain. Rainfall from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning will remain under an inch for most with the most falling across New England's south shore.
Expected weather Saturday afternoon (1st image) and overnight Saturday night (2nd image):
With the system stalling out near the Gulf of Maine, clouds and a few showers will linger Sunday and Monday. The already weak system will be weakening more as it sits. Sunday and Monday will be dry a vast majority of the time. It will be mainly cloudy and the clouds may spit out some drops and drizzle every so often, mainly in eastern New England.
High temperatures during this time will be dependent on cloud cover. Right now, it does appear clouds will hold New England to the 40s and low 50s on Sunday. Should clouds thin out and allow some breaks for sun, highs will be able to get well into the 50s for southern and western New England on Sunday. Monday will be very similar to Sunday, though likely to be a notch cooler in spots.
GFS temperature forecast for Sunday afternoon:
Heading towards the middle of next week, what's left of the coastal low will pull away and another disturbance will likely approach from the west in the form of a surface boundary. This will likely keep the cloudy, showery weather around for much of the week.
Weather map for Wednesday morning:
These disturbances will keep much of New England's temperatures from reaching as high as they otherwise could, which is very spring-like. The main difference here in early March is that the 40s north and 50s south are still above average. Highs will be in the 50s for most next week, with the highest temperatures further west in New England. 60s will be possible across portions of Vermont on Tuesday. This will be dependent on cloud cover.
This unusually warm air is coming to New England thanks to a strong trough-in-the-west-ridge-in-the-east pattern that will be setting up starting this weekend. This pattern will likely hold through midweek. That boundary approaching midweek will likely cool things off a notch heading toward the end of next week.
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