A backdoor cold front from a system moving well to New England's north will very slowly continue pushing into northern New England today. This (already weak) front will weaken and fall apart before reaching southern New England. The front may be able to produce a couple quick showers across Vermont or the White Mountains today, resulting in a very spotty trace of rain.
After this front washes out over New England, the entire region will be firmly under the grip of a strong ridge of high pressure. This will preclude any precipitation chances for the first half of next week. During this time, an area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of the Carolinas. The ridge of high pressure over New England will prevent this system from moving north, resulting in a Rex Block, when a high pressure system sits directly over a low pressure system, preventing the low's natural movement. We went further into this yesterday.
Through the beginning of next week, this low will likely bring a slug of rainfall to the eastern Carolinas and Virginia as the high keeps the storm sitting over the area for a couple days. After that, the storm will try valiantly to push northward as much as it can before shooting off into the open ocean. The ridge of high pressure will try to deflect the system away from New England, but there has been an overall northerly trend with the system.
It's starting to look more likely that the system will be able to push into at least Connecticut and Rhode Island around midweek next week, maybe on Wednesday or Thursday. This will be New England's next chance for any rainfall. How far north the system can actually push remains to be seen, but the farther south you are in New England, the better the chance you have of seeing showers from this system. This is the only chance for wetting rains in the extended forecast.
This system is also being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for potential tropical development. As of Saturday morning, the NHC gives this system a 50% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical system off the Carolina coast. This would come as the system sits over warm waters off the southeast coast, potentially allowing the system to develop a warm core. This doesn't heighten any concerns for New England with the system (New England could use the rain should it push north), it's just something to watch.
It's been a very dry September for New England. In fact, Saturday will be Boston's 25th consecutive day without measurable rain. This stretch has entered the city's top 10 longest stretches without measurable rain. The city would have to go another few weeks to reach the all-time longest stretch of 44 days (1924). This stretch should make it to at least 28 days, which would be Tuesday.
If the midweek system fails to push far enough north to bring the city showers on Wednesday and/or Thursday, the streak has a decent chance of continuing for at least a bit longer, but this is trying to look out over a week now. The Climate Prediction Center favors generally below average rainfall and above average temperatures heading toward the end of September.
Comments