A weak trough will move to the north of New England today, lifting its warm front across the region. This will create a southerly flow at the surface while generally zonal flow in the upper-levels continues. These two factors will bring the peak of this current mild stretch for this afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient will allow for gusts to become elevated once again, though not nearly to the levels of late last week. This will be a southerly flow, so the wind gusts also won't have a bite.
Highs on Tuesday will reach into the 50s (at least) for most. While mixing is generally shallower on a southerly flow, highs in the low to even mid 60s will be possible across southern New England and southern New Hampshire (away from south-facing coastlines). The mountains and far northern areas will likely get held to the 40s. It's worth noting that the shallow mixing (and an inversion) will help keep wind gusts in check today.
The first of a couple weaker systems will move through New England Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning. Spring temperatures in New England are extremely fickle and we've reached the point in the year where mild-looking days can quickly turn much cooler due to several factors this time of year. For Wednesday, this will be a sweeping cold front bringing a quick end to our southerly flow. Cool surface high pressure near the Canadian border will build behind the front on Wednesday.
It certainly won't be Arctic behind the front, but it will bring New England back to more of a mid-March reality. Highs will mainly be in the 30s north to 40s south. The drop in temperature will be most prominent across northern areas; Burlington's high temperature Wednesday (which may struggle to reach the freezing mark) may be nearly 30° cooler than Tuesday's high in the mid to upper 50s.
Below: Temperature departure from average for Tuesday afternoon (1st image) and Wednesday afternoon (2nd image):
Overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, a northern stream trough will skirt through the region. While moisture will be limited as the northern and southern streams remain separated and out of sync, the system may be able to spark some scattered snow and rain showers across the region. Any precipitation that forms will likely be snow showers overnight into the early morning, with anything lingering late enough into Thursday switching to light rain showers.
Any snow and rain showers will be light as current Weather Prediction Center probabilities of at least an inch of snow currently top out at 30%. High pressure just to the east of Maine will also create dry air to help eat into this weak system, making it more difficult to produce anything widespread. The high pressure will likely end up keeping much of Maine dry for this event.
Below: FV3 showing potential weather early Thursday morning:
That area of high pressure to Maine's east will likely settle around the Nova Scotia area for Thursday. This will bring about an onshore flow and sea breeze for Thursday. As is the case throughout the springtime, this will result in a mainly cloudy, raw and damp feeling through the day. Highs will likely end up cooler than Wednesday given this onshore setup. Thursday will be the first in what will likely be a large handful of days just like it over the next couple months.
Below: Flow pattern on Thursday afternoon; a perfect setup for a raw day:
A rebound in temperatures will begin on Friday as a southerly flow begins to return ahead of a potent storm system working across the country. This will be a very spring-like storm for the country with the potential for accumulating snow on its backside in the northern plains and a severe weather outbreak in the south. For New England, the storm will track to the north, making this a nearly all-rain event region-wide. This is the next shot at an organized, widespread storm system for New England.
The system will arrive in New England late this weekend, likely by Sunday evening, though there is still wiggle room with the timing. This system may follow a similar trend as this past week’s rain event with a shield of moderate to heavy rainfall ahead of a cold/occluded front. Current probabilities show a widespread half an inch to inch of rainfall for New England.
Below: Current weather map for Sunday morning (March 16):
There will also be a better chance for substantial snowmelt across the mountains compared to last week's storm. River rises and ice breakup in rivers will be possible once again with this one. Ice jam flooding will once again need to be monitored. The extent of river rises and potential ice jams is hard to say this far out, so the threat could increase or decrease throughout this week. Trends will be watched through the week, mainly in regards to how much rain is expected.
The potential for strong southerly winds will also be a possibility as a low-level jet of around 70-80mph will be possible. Naturally, not all of this wind will make it to the ground, and southerly winds can often have trouble mixing to the surface given a potential inversion. It’s hard to give a potential magnitude on winds this far in advance, especially given the time of year when inversions can be very prominent, so trends on this will be watched as well.
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