A couple quick hitting systems are lined up for New England. The first of these will come Saturday morning, as an area of low pressure skirts to the north. This will pull a cold front across northern New England in the morning. This may ignite a couple showers across the northern tier of New England as it passes, though the air mass is dry, so showers may be hard to come by. Any showers activity will be limited to the northern third of the region.
Southern and central New England will likely see sunnier, dry and mild conditions on Saturday as the cooler air will lag behind the front. The northern third of New England will see generally more clouds, breezy and much cooler weather as the front crosses early in the morning. Highs will likely get well into the 60s with some near 70° in southern New England with more 50s across the north with a chilly breeze.
Below: Temperature departure from average on Saturday afternoon:
Sunday into Monday, a more potent system will drive through the region. A trough of low pressure will dig into the Great Lakes Sunday morning before moving northeast through New England Sunday night into Monday, deepening as it does so. The system's warm front will likely reach for New England earlier on Sunday.
The exact track that the system takes through New England will determine rain totals and who gets the most rain from the system. These setups often favor northern New England for more rainfall as the best forcing for rain happens near and north of the center of the low, which is currently poised to track through northern New England. As of now, a wide swath of a half inch to inch of rain is possible for New England, with the higher end of the spectrum across northern New England.
Below: Current rainfall forecast through midweek next week:
As for timing, it looks like scattered showers may break out during the daytime Sunday as the system's warm front pushes into New England. These showers would push from west to east during the day. This initial round of showers associated with the warm front should be scattered around and less widespread. Dry air and surface high pressure over New England on Sunday will try to eat away at showers initially. Sunday will not be a washout.
Heading into Sunday night, the system will deepen as it pushes into New England. Moisture in the atmosphere will increase, which will allow for more widespread moderate rainfall heading into Sunday night and Monday. The bulk of the rainfall from this system is expected to move through New England during this time frame. Monday does have washout potential as the rain may take all day to move through. Some areas might be able to begin to dry out later in the afternoon.
Below: Euro showing potential weather Monday afternoon:
Plenty of chilly air will wrap into New England behind the system. Enough so that the higher terrain of northern New England could see a transition to a mix or snow showers. Killington Resort in Vermont reported their first snowfall of the season yesterday. Some light accumulations will be possible above 2,500 feet as upslope showers continue for the mountains into the middle of next week.
Below: ICON showing the potential for light snow accumulations in the higher terrain through Tuesday:
After this system, next week may end up pretty similar to this past week with a ridge over the west and a trough remaining over the northeast. This will keep temperatures cool with more frost and freeze potential. An expansive area of high pressure will likely preclude any more organized shower activity, but some pop-up showers will be possible in the trough, similar to this past week. This setup will likely last through at least midweek.
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